Five comments on five election polls

By | June 22, 2022

Table of Contents

1.

Five polls were published yesterday in the Israeli media. One in the morning, on the radio, four in the evening, on TV. An almost uniformly suspicious cluster. And not that God forbid there is suspicion, only that the consent is astonishing. In many cases, all polls predict exactly the same number of seats for the party. Take for example the new hope: 4 seats in all five polls. Or Religious Zionism: 9 seats in four polls, and 10 seats in the fifth poll. Gap of a maximum of one seat.

We have attached a table with all the results, and with a line describing the maximum gap in relation to each party. Where are the anomalies? In one poll out of five the right gets 7 seats. This is a gap of two to three seats compared to the other polls. In one survey there is a future of getting 22 – a small deviation compared to a cluster of 21-20.

Bottom line: Netanyahu’s bloc, ie, the Likud, Shas, Torah Judaism and religious Zionism, reach 59 or 60 seats. Twice 60, three times 59. It’s almost no gap, it’s almost a complete consensus between the polls and the polls. Interesting, and a little amazing. Either everyone is right, or everyone is wrong. And it could be that in election number five there is no longer much to check. Everyone already knows where they are on the map, and the changes are small, minor, if any.

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2.

What is completely clear from the polls? That there are too many parties that are close to the blocking percentage. Either they will be united, or they will disappear, or the election night will be like a night in a casino. At the fraction of a percent fraction it will be clear who won, if anyone won.

Five comments on five election polls Five polls were published yesterday in the Israeli media. One in the morning, on the radio, four in the evening, on TV. An almost uniformly suspicious cluster. And not that God forbid there is suspicion, only that the consent is astonishing. In many cases, all polls predict exactly the same number of seats for the party. Take for example the new hope: 4 seats in all five polls. Or Religious Zionism: 9 seats in four polls, and 10 seats in the fifth poll. Gap of a maximum of one seat. - Optigames

3.

What else is clear from the polls? The Israeli draw of recent years has remained the same. A victory of one side will not be due to the passing of voters from the other side, but due to a mishap on the other side. The news reviewer here, Dudi Hassid, rightly called it a “technical victory” this morning. It would be something like a very low turnout of Arabs, or Meretz’s insistence on running and then a failure on Election Day (Meretz did not pass two of yesterday’s five polls, and some pollsters believe its situation is worse than it did yesterday in the results).

The decision will be in points, and will probably lead to the next government, if it is formed, standing on loose knees. Note that the reviewers did not echo the undecided rate yesterday. This is an important statistic. And more importantly, between whom they are debating. There is no great importance in debating between work and having a future. There is an importance to the dilemma between religious Zionism and blue and white.

4.

Netanyahu receives a higher score in accordance with the prime minister from each of his opponents, in all channels. And on the other hand, in none of the polls does he get more than 50% match. In other words, there is no Israeli majority that sees Netanyahu as the most suitable candidate for prime minister. There are more Israelis who think he is suitable than Israelis who think that Lapid, or Ganz, or Bennett, or someone else are suitable. But if you connect everyone who does not think Netanyahu is suitable, you will get a little more than half. That is, Lapid’s (and perhaps someone else’s) war will be to convince all the unconvinced, but not-want-Netanyahu, that he is good enough. Enough so that no Netanyahu opponent will suddenly decide to vote for Netanyahu.

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5.

Lish Atid has a difficulty: she has not so much from whom to take seats, without endangering herself and the entire bloc. If there is a future you will take Meretz votes (and it seems to be already taking), Meretz may not pass the blocking percentage. Labor is also not as far from it as it would like to be: 5 seats in two polls and 6 seats in two others. A union with Meretz could raise both parties a bit. Strengthening Torch can push them both down.

Yisrael Beiteinu with its 5 seats (in all but one poll), is not a candidate to vote. Remained blue-white. Yair Lapid and Bnei Gantz have a history of rivalry, and the upcoming election will not make these two close friends. Lapid wants Gantz’s votes, in part because Gantz is important to him as someone who might sit down with Netanyahu. Ganz wants Lapid’s votes, in part because he has not yet received the announcement, and certainly has not come to terms with the opinion that only Lapid is a candidate for prime minister, and he is not.

The internal battles on the right will be between the ultra-Orthodox parties and religious Zionism. The inner battles in the center-left will be between there is a future and blue and white. And of course, there is also the most interesting battle: between the common and the RAAM. It is worth a separate column, detailed and based on data.